Posted on January 30, 2007
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As a convert from Windows we haven’t been too excited about the prospect of Vista coming out. However we went through a demonstration that will going on in just about every retail outlet selling computers in the world soon and it’s pretty clear that Windows users will covet the new OS.
In a similar way that AJAX has caught on for the Web, Windows users will appreciate the visual effects, mouseover actions and improved WYSIWIG editing in Vista & Office 2007. Security and enhanced parental controls are featured prominantly but are there really to satisfy the “more secure” checkbox.
People will buy it for the eye candy and in some cases for the same reasons people join health clubs or purchase exercise equipment. The existing OS and product families are just stale and Vista promises to make users “more productive, more mobile, more fun and more secure.” Who can resist that?
Cost is definitely an issue. I’m not sure how many people will want to pay up for the software to apply to existing machines versus purchase a new one pre-loaded with Vista and Office 2007. As of now it’s hard to say what you can get from Dell but would guess a system pre-loaded with both would run $1100-1400 as a guess. (For those continuing to pay attention or be interested in Dell their site is getting worse from what it was a year or two ago when their problems started to become manifest.)
Aside from pushing drooling Windows users to upgrade, Vista probably darkens the already dim outlook for the Linux desktop. People love Mac OSX and Windows users will probably love Vista. This doesn’t leave much room for the Linux desktop to enjoy anything close to mainstream adoption and might even kill it.
Posted on January 18, 2007
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According to economist Julian Simon the costs for raw materials, food and energy decline inexorably over time in real terms. He backs it up well in his book The Ultimate Resource. The main point has to do with the human capacity to tackle the challenges to create additional capacity from existing or new sources and at the same time develop more efficient technologies to consumer fewer materials per unit of output.
It’s a powerful, well-researched argument and as a concept represents what we think of as a kind of Moore’s Law for energy. Maybe if true we should call it Simon’s Law to be fair.
The investment implications are pretty clear. Energy and raw materials have certainly been volatile of late and it’s hard to tell if it represents a return to the secular decline Simon would expect or we are still caught up in speculative fever that cooled down just as the weather warmed up for a bit.
Even if energy prices do revert to a long-term secular decline in real terms there continue to be good investment opportunities in alternative energy because the growth will end up being more about innovation than pure returns from higher average prices. For example the products that become possible if they can be efficiently run off solar or other sources can open up new markets independently.
We think this concept of an inexorable decline is an interesting one that will generate more posts here. Water is another area that looks very interesting. If T. Boone Pickens is going there now it could be the next area of major speculation and higher prices.
Posted on January 9, 2007
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We hate to be a wet blanket but we were baffled at the end of Apple announcement today. Of course like Apple users we love the new device but to see a *carrier* guy come out on stage and say that they would be the exclusive distributor in the US?! Buying the device requires a two year contract with Cingular?! This is so ’90’s.
Since the device supports multiple networks and has built-in WiFi why wouldn’t this be a SIP or Skype phone? Steve talks about “skating to where the puck is going to be” and doesn’t embrace VoIP? Weird.
I know they want to move units and maybe felt that there are not enough potential buyers in the Skype/SIP universe but that is remarkably backward looking.
Since I’m not an expert and all this just hit the wires maybe I’m missing something. They could add Skype/SIP affinity down the road but it’s unlikely Cingular would do this deal without wanting to cut that option off or delay it as long as possible.
AppleTV is certainly a step ahead from what was announced in September but where is a new video iPod? Ah well, 2007 looks like a building year to us. Apple has a strong base and good momentum but the Cingular deal is a real anchor.
Posted on January 8, 2007
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Steve Jobs and Apple are certainly stealing quite a few headlines. While the success of company is irrefutable there is quite a bit of analysis suggesting that the dark cloud around company management and the board of directors vis a vis options backdating is going to shed some rain rather than blow over. For example Mark Anderson over at the Strategic News Service has been an early siren on the high probability that Jobs has some exposure to this issue. A recent analysis by Christopher Whalen from Institutional Risk Analytics elaborates on the situation in a way that makes you think that Jobs and the BoD at Apple may be robbed of their happy smiles despite all the success at Apple.
There is indeed a notion that the penalty seems too great for the crime in the case of Jobs. After all if everyone was doing backdating and Jobs didn’t personally benefit should such an important and productive CEO be taken out of his job? The shortcoming of such thinking is that the law is not a matter of personal opinion and selective applicability. Today we may be finally seeing a turn in the tide of thinking that the law can be interpreted and applied when deemed appropriate. On a broader stage it seems clear that some number of actions taken by the Bush administration in the US clearly violate the law in general and the U.S. Constitution in particular. Here again it’s described in a context about this being a case where the law or the Constitution should not be rigorously applied. Amazingly guys like Dick Cheney actually admit that they would not comply with a congressional subpoena to give testimony.
Even after Enron and the Wall Street Settlement there seems to still be an attitude of ignoring laws when they seem inconvenient or “common practice.” Although I have high regard for Apple products and use them every day it doesn’t mean that I would accept some illegal activity on the part of the company.
Watching this play out will hopefully serve as a reminder that the law is blind and those in power without the integrity to follow it or at least make amends will be cut down just like anyone else.
Posted on January 3, 2007
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Sometimes little things help us see the big picture. (I wish I had shorted Dell two years ago when I had the worst customer support experience ever after buying my last system from them.) Ah well… on to Yahoo.
We all know the broadside Google has made on Yahoo with their advertising products, Google Maps and so on. Google Finance may not be a huge hit yet but the response Yahoo has made has been very poor. As a frequent user of both it seems to me that the people behind Yahoo Finance don’t actually use it. The new advanced charting features basically toss you out of the fundamental menu that makes Yahoo better than Google. In trying to improve charts to look more like Google they have made their leading site less usable and made it that much easier for Google.
This brings me to my real reason for posting which is Picasa versus Flickr. (Again I’m a user of both.) Just recently Google poked me with the offer to use their new web album feature. What’s important about this is that since my Mac doesn’t have Picasa, Google nicely offers me a download that will allow me to integrate easily with my iPhoto content and start using Picasa right away. Why hasn’t Flickr done this in the last year?
Before hitting the comment button I do know that one can make all this work in Flickr. This is not my point. There are millions of iPhoto users out there who are great potential users of a service like Flickr. Why not make it easy for them and create a little software to make it happen?
This is the sort of thing that Yahoo is facing across the board. Google isn’t perfect but they keep executing in a way that makes sense and is consistent (much of the time) with Web 2.0 software tenants.
It bothers me when companies get big and stop being smart, eventually the point of being stupid. The Yahoo guys were super smart and way ahead of the curve ten years ago. Today the company seems hopelessly stuck in the muck. Google will continue to have fun at their expense. It seems natural for them to be acquired either by a similary struggling Microsoft or another large media company.